Will The Next Terrorist Look Like Your Sister?

[SecTrainer]

Great Britain's intelligence services and, to a lesser degree our own, are reporting a marked increase in "home-grown" terrorist threats, and of course we've also seen greater willingness of terror organizations to use female suicide bombers.

These trends raise the interesting question posed by the title of this post - will the next terrorist you see look like your sister...or maybe your mom? (I hear the jokes coming!).

Seriously, though, these trends reinforce how important it is to observe the environment for suspicious or unusual behaviors or mannerisms (like nervousness), clothing (a jacket in warm weather), activities (photographing, unusual questions, taking notes), people who go places they're not supposed to be, etc., rather than the temptation to look for certain "types" of people (race, gender, etc.) when we're scanning for potential terrorist threats.

And, all of us should be doing this kind of scanning, no matter what type of facility we guard, because another trend is that there are increasing threats to SOFT targets - meaning the hotel, school, mall, widget plant, WalMart or hospital, and some less emphasis on the harder targets like the airport, Federal courthouse, football stadium or military base. These must obviously be protected to a high degree, but terrorists are adaptable and will go wherever they can cause mayhem and create fear in the population with the lowest chance of being detected and intercepted before they can pull off their operations. So...we should try to see to it that they have a high chance of being intercepted at the facilities we guard, and it's just as well if they make that determination while they're in the planning stage because we are vigilant in spotting their surveillance activities.

[Bill Warnock]

Will The Next Terrorist Look Like Your Sister?

SecTrainer, the answer is yes. The boy or girl next door will be the image. In security as well as in law enforcement, things come in three's. Sensitivity, Criticality and Vulnerability of assets. Whom shall we be on the lookout for? The three Cs, Crazy--Criminal--Crusader. The Crusader is by far the most dangerous of the three. His or her mission is a divine calling, "God Wills It." They are not insane. Their mission is to be a hero for their cause, which for the most part is fanatic religious zeal, and if that means giving up their lives in the pursuit of that cause, then they have achieved a noble end. Their suicide will inspire others to do the same in the name of the sacred cause. The Crazy sees the aftermath of the Crusader, hear voices and act. The Criminal exploits the actions of the other two for profit or advantage.
If a hardened target is destroyed, the message is apparent in that no matter how it is secured, it will be of no consequence. A soft target's destruction brings fear, nobody is safe regardless of the place or circumstance.
It is not if; it is a matter of when.
The answer is problematic.
You drive home a serious, serious situation.
Enjoy the day,
Bill

[SecTrainer]

The three Cs, Crazy--Criminal--Crusader. The Crusader is by far the most dangerous of the three. His or her mission is a divine calling, "God Wills It." They are not insane. Their mission is to be a hero for their cause, which for the most part is fanatic religious zeal, and if that means giving up their lives in the pursuit of that cause, then they have achieved a noble end. Their suicide will inspire others to do the same in the name of the sacred cause. The Crazy sees the aftermath of the Crusader, hear voices and act. The Criminal exploits the actions of the other two for profit or advantage.

Unfortunately, the Crusaders and the Criminals - particularly international criminal organizations - are coming together to do business, primarily in the form of weapons/explosives and training, and probably conducting joint operations in drugs, money laundering, etc. My hope is that, as frightening as the prospect of such "partnerships" might be, they may also offer intelligence opportunities because crime groups are more easily identified and penetrated than the terror groups have traditionally been.

Along those same lines, incidentally, the shift to recruiting "ordinary indigenous people" by terrorists may represent opportunities for penetration of the organization/cell that we haven't had in the past. The strategy might be their undoing! It wouldn't be their first strategic blunder. We put a guy in prison...he joins the Muslims...he gets recruited...etc. We might be doing this now and we just don't know about it because the liberal news media haven't found out yet.

Certainly, any sort of dependency of a terrorist group on an "outside" entity like a criminal organization - whether for information, food, shelter, supplies, transportation, weapons, false identification, financing or joint operations - is also a potential vulnerability to the terrorists, if we can identify and exploit the opportunities such "partnerships" provide in the way of penetration, surveillance and interdiction.

It might just be that as terrorists try to "adapt" by such strategies, they will make the wrong turn and we'll catch them, trapped in a box canyon of their own making.

[Mr. Security]

Unfortunately, the Crusaders and the Criminals - particularly international criminal organizations - are coming together to do business, primarily in the form of weapons/explosives and training, and probably conducting joint operations in drugs, money laundering, etc. My hope is that, as frightening as the prospect of such "partnerships" might be, they may also offer intelligence opportunities because crime groups are more easily identified and penetrated than the terror groups have traditionally been.

Along those same lines, incidentally, the shift to recruiting "ordinary indigenous people" by terrorists may represent opportunities for penetration of the organization/cell that we haven't had in the past. The strategy might be their undoing! It wouldn't be their first strategic blunder. We put a guy in prison...he joins the Muslims...he gets recruited...etc. We might be doing this now and we just don't know about it because the liberal news media haven't found out yet.

Certainly, any sort of dependency of a terrorist group on an "outside" entity like a criminal organization - whether for information, food, shelter, supplies, transportation, weapons, false identification, financing or joint operations - is also a potential vulnerability to the terrorists, if we can identify and exploit the opportunities such "partnerships" provide in the way of penetration, surveillance and interdiction.

It might just be that as terrorists try to "adapt" by such strategies, they will make the wrong turn and we'll catch them, trapped in a box canyon of their own making.

Sounds feasible, but it's extremely difficult to penetrate a radical religious group because agents don’t fit in. Almost every member knows the other members, their families, backgrounds, etc. Anyone who doesn't have a history will stand out. Traitors will find it difficult to conceal their treason due to the nature of the organizations beliefs, requirements, and the like. Can it be done? Yes. Still, it's likely to be a low-level infiltration.

[Chucky]

Sounds feasible, but it's extremely difficult to penetrate a radical religious group because agents don’t fit in. Almost every member knows the other members, their families, backgrounds, etc. Anyone who doesn't have a history will stand out. Traitors will find it difficult to conceal their treason due to the nature of the organizations beliefs, requirements, and the like. Can it be done? Yes. Still, it's likely to be a low-level infiltration.

Don't be to sure.

[SecTrainer]

Sounds feasible, but it's extremely difficult to penetrate a radical religious group because agents don’t fit in. Almost every member knows the other members, their families, backgrounds, etc. Anyone who doesn't have a history will stand out. Traitors will find it difficult to conceal their treason due to the nature of the organizations beliefs, requirements, and the like. Can it be done? Yes. Still, it's likely to be a low-level infiltration.

Yes, but you're missing the whole point. Whereas previously, infiltration of the terrorist group itself was so difficult because they operated strictly independently and accepted only certain ethnicities as their members, both the new affiliations with criminal organizations and the new acceptance of "home-grown" individuals (who would be, in the case of a cell operating in the U.S., just plain ordinary Americans) should make the infiltration of these groups much more feasible as they are no longer the "closed systems" that they once were.

[Mr. Security]

Chucky

You're bad.

[Mr. Security]

Yes, but you're missing the whole point. Whereas previously, infiltration of the terrorist group itself was so difficult because they operated strictly independently and accepted only certain ethnicities as their members, both the new affiliations with criminal organizations and the new acceptance of "home-grown" individuals (who would be, in the case of a cell operating in the U.S., just plain ordinary Americans) should make the infiltration of these groups much more feasible as they are no longer the "closed systems" that they once were.

Granted, those groups may be easier to penetrate. They are not, however, as great a threat as the traditional radical religious terrorist.

[N. A. Corbier]

The problem, especially in the UK, is that Islamic fundamentalism (the terrorist kind) is sweeping through the younger people. Since this is ideological, anyone can be come a terrorist crusader simply by believing in the doctrine enough to pass some loyalty tests and they are "in."

Islamic terrorist organizations are proliferating in Britain because they can reach the minds and hearts of the young there. Take a look at 99% of all the pro-terrorist propaganda pieces on YouTube. They are narrated in English by people with British accents. I don't claim that this means that they are all Brittons, but they learned English, and speak it well, in places where the Queen's English is spoken, not American.

The extreme of this, unfortunately, is that man screaming about Barack Obama "bringing our enemies into our own Senate!" because he wanted to get a picture with the Koran instead of a Bible or some other book for his swearing in photo op.

We have our own ideological terrorism. Unfortunately, many don't recognize it as such. Its when the ideological terrorists of the United States and those of the Middle East get together and start fighting on US soil. That's when the "fun" will really start.

[SecTrainer]

Granted, those groups may be easier to penetrate. They are not, however, as great a threat as the traditional radical religious terrorist.

Somehow, I'm not making my point: The "traditional radical religious terrorist" group is now beginning to work with these criminal groups, and to recruit "native" (non-middle-Eastern) indigenous people into their organizations. That is the opportunity I am speaking about. It's the reason we do "link analysis" as one of the tools of intelligence. Links represent relationships, and relationships represent vulnerabilities of various sorts. (This is not only true in terrorism, incidentally, but in business as well!)

When the "traditional radical religious terrorist group" was a closed entity, it was indeed difficult to penetrate. However, this model has been forced to adapt, and has probably not chosen wisely in this particular adaptation strategy because it has raised the vulnerability of such groups.

[Bill Warnock]

Somehow, I'm not making my point: The "traditional radical religious terrorist" group is now beginning to work with these criminal groups, and to recruit "native" (non-middle-Eastern) indigenous people into their organizations. That is the opportunity I am speaking about. It's the reason we do "link analysis" as one of the tools of intelligence. Links represent relationships, and relationships represent vulnerabilities of various sorts. (This is not only true in terrorism, incidentally, but in business as well!)

When the "traditional radical religious terrorist group" was a closed entity, it was indeed difficult to penetrate. However, this model has been forced to adapt, and has probably not chosen wisely in this particular adaptation strategy because it has raised the vulnerability of such groups.

SecTrainer, in the past three years, "the base" has had representatives meet with the so called Narco-Terrorists to cement ties with those people. Additionally, intelligence suggests they have direct links with the Mafia in Sicily as well as the French Corsicans. There is money to be made so as you have said, these groups are cooperating for the mutual benefit of all. Further, intelligence also supports the notion there is an involvement with street gangs.
All of these marginalized people or groups now have a feeling of self-worth really doing something to fulfill an unknown hunger. Are we on top of it, not in a pig's eye!
Enjoy the day,
Bill

[Mr. Security]

Somehow, I'm not making my point: The "traditional radical religious terrorist" group is now beginning to work with these criminal groups, and to recruit "native" (non-middle-Eastern) indigenous people into their organizations. That is the opportunity I am speaking about. It's the reason we do "link analysis" as one of the tools of intelligence. Links represent relationships, and relationships represent vulnerabilities of various sorts. (This is not only true in terrorism, incidentally, but in business as well!)

When the "traditional radical religious terrorist group" was a closed entity, it was indeed difficult to penetrate. However, this model has been forced to adapt, and has probably not chosen wisely in this particular adaptation strategy because it has raised the vulnerability of such groups.

I understood your point. These (to quote you) "criminal groups, and to recruit "native" (non-middle-Eastern) indigenous people into their organizations" (unquote) are not going to be trusted with high-level terrorist attacks for the very reason that you pointed out, namely, they can be penetrated. Operations on the scale of 9/11 will only be entrusted to the element I identified, a "traditional radical religious terrorist group."

That's why infiltration is limited in its value as a way to derail major terrorist attacks.