02-11-2011, 12:47 PM #1
- Join Date
- Nov 2004
Will Mubarak resignation affect global security?
A momentous day following three decades of Hosni Mubarak serving as president of Egypt...he resigns.
Omar Suleiman now takes over (formerly VP), and has a background from Egypt's intelligence services, and he is said to have strong relationships with U.S. at the state level and at the intelligence level.
So, while there is still a lot of speculation as to whether Suleiman's takeover after Mubarak's resignation really represents a regime change, what do you think today's resignation of Mubarak means for global security and stability in the Middle East?
02-11-2011, 01:48 PM #2
Geoff, the situation in Egypt is very fluid and changing by the minute. It's my understanding, as of this writing, that power has been turned over to the military and the Egyptian VP is not in the picture. They have or shortly will suspend the Egyptian constitution, disband the cabinet and remove all of the politicians from office.Retail Security Consultant / Expert Witness
Effective Security Management 6th Edition
02-11-2011, 03:47 PM #3
02-11-2011, 06:49 PM #4
It's much too early to make predictions. We'll just have to wait and see what happens with certain elements in Egyptian society such as the Muslim Brotherhood. However, it is encouraging that this was a largely secular social and economic uprising, as opposed to one based on religious grounds. Also, the military in Egypt is not, to the best of my knowledge, likely to fall under the control of the extremist elements such as occurred in Iran. It has been the military, primarily, that has kept the M.B.'s extreme elements in check for many years, and it seems likely to me that they'll continue to do so. The military knows very well who - and what - these people are. (It was almost certainly the military who, in the hours after Mubarak's "I'm-staying" speech, evaluated the situation, found it to be unthinkable that they might have to shoot at the protesters today, and told Mubarak that he was done. The military have actually been running the country for many years. Mubarak has been a figurehead.)
So - no prediction, but if I had to bet I think it is much less likely that the Egyptian people will turn around and accept a different form of dictatorship the way the Iranians did - or that the military would tolerate such a development.
I do think it would be very important for our government to recognize the need to get "our voice" on the ground in Egyptian society every way that we can. Normally, I don't think there's much value in "dollar diplomacy"; however, we can't simply surrender the field to the Muslim Brotherhood and similar elements that have kept their influence alive by providing significant social, health and other services to the impoverished segments of Egyptian society. We'll need to be exploring opportunities to provide aid of many kinds, consultation, constitutional and electoral process expertise, etc. through our friends in the Egyptian military command, and in this case I would not mind at all if our government and private US companies made a significant investment in the future of democracy in Egypt.
We must seize the moment to encourage the emergence of real democracy in Egypt. Time and tide wait for no man.
Oh, yes - and it might be a good idea to mend the fences with other allies in the region that Obama damaged by his astonishing ineptitude in handling this situation on our side.
Last edited by SecTrainer; 02-11-2011 at 07:18 PM.A man who will not lie to his wife has no regard for her feelings. - Anon.
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02-12-2011, 12:41 AM #5
- Join Date
- Oct 2010
- Washington State
other regimes & gas prices
The fear is that protests and demonstrations may occur in countries w/ similar regimes, but the party in power will massively overreact, and things will get out of control. Any time the Middle East is more unstable than usual, gas prices shoot up. On our end, rising fuel prices could stall the recovery, the recession gets worse, and crime goes up.
Also, new democracies in this region are notorious for corruption. As previously mentioned, we've got to watch the dollars, or they'll be wasted or diverted to crooks and terrorists, as has happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. With our massive national debt, we've got to be prudent with foreign aid...
02-19-2011, 02:43 PM #6